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“Ball of Confusion – that’s what the world is today<\/em>.” The Temptations, 1970<\/p>\n Brexit doesn’t only divide people, it confuses the hell out of them. Here are ten things that either I believed until I realised I was wrong, or that I found were wrong after someone else had confidently told me them.<\/p>\n 1. The best way to stop Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn\u2019s plan for an emergency government<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n No. That plan could be derailed in several ways, some of which could result in Brexit happening – as we see below. \u00a0The alternative to the no-confidence route is the legislation route, whereby MPs find a way to propose and pass a Bill requiring the government to postpone or even revoke Brexit. \u00a0The former director of legislation at No 10 under Theresa May, Joe Moor<\/a>, thinks the government are more fearful of the legislation route than the no-confidence one.<\/p>\n 2. <\/strong>Johnson is likely to lose a vote of no-confidence<\/strong><\/p>\n By no means a done deal. \u00a0The Tories currently have a majority of one, which could disappear if a wavering MP such as Philip Lee were to follow the likes of Sarah Wollaston into the Lib Dems. You can hear him wavering at length in this podast<\/a>. However, there are also dyed-in-the-wool Labour Brexiters, like Kate Hoey, who might abstain or even oppose the no-confidence motion. According to some MPs\u2019 calculations, around eight Tories need to vote with the Opposition parties to unseat Boris Johnson. And, in their party, that would not be rebellion, but high treason. A Tory who voted down a Tory government would face the wrath of hell. Deselection would only be the start. Thereafter would come trolling, abuse and hatred from a party they have belonged to most of their lives. My guess is in the unlikely event it happens, it might involve a bunch of them \u2013 Philip Hammond leading perhaps \u2013 who would then go into political, if not literal, exile.<\/p>\n 3. Johnson can just ignore a no-confidence vote<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n This was going the rounds a few weeks ago. The line was that Johnson could \u2018ignore\u2019 a no-confidence vote and call an election. But he can\u2019t ignore it. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011<\/a> (FTPA) says a PM can\u2019t continue in office if they lose a no-confidence vote and can\u2019t regain confidence in the next 14 days. So calling an election would be responding to the vote, not ignoring it. I suspect the \u2018ignore\u2019 word was deliberately briefed to obfuscate and make Johnson look in control.<\/p>\n 4. If a vote of no-confidence passes, Corbyn will form a temporary government<\/strong><\/p>\n 5. A no-confidence vote will help stop Brexit \u2013 someway, somehow<\/strong><\/p>\n Not necessarily. It might actually make Brexit happen. Under the FTPA, after a vote of no-confidence in a government, MPs have 14 days to find a Prime Minister in whom they do have confidence. If they don\u2019t, Parliament is dissolved and there\u2019s a General Election \u2013 but critically the FTPA says the polling date is at \u201cthe recommendation of the Prime Minister\u201d. In other words, Johnson could simply call the election for after 31 October.\u00a0 And his aide Dominic Cummings is apparently briefing<\/a> that this will be the outcome. \u00a0By the way, if this happens, Corbyn is granted two wishes at once: we leave the EU \u2013 which he has advocated all his career; and he can fight the next election from his comfort zone of inequality and domestic issues. At root, Johnson and Corbyn want pretty very similar things.<\/p>\n 6. If we can get an election before Brexit, those supporting a new referendum can win <\/strong><\/p>\n Everything\u2019s possible. But they are no longer favourites. Think what you like about Boris Johnson, he has recharged Tory support and his party is now consistently ahead<\/a>. In an election, the Tories may also make a pact with the Brexit party to have only one candidate between them in each constituency. It would be a no-brainer for Nigel Farage \u2013 he\u2019s gets to be an MP, possibly a Minister \u2013 as do a handful of his members for whom Tories stand down in their hard-to-win seats.\u00a0 If Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and Nationalists don\u2019t agree to stand down for each other in a similar way, that might be game over. And can we see Labour candidates standing down?<\/p>\n 7. But if Labour, LibDems, Greens and Nationalists can form a majority, they can stop Brexit<\/strong><\/p>\n Possibly. But consider what Corbyn has been silent on. His offer jumps from an election to a referendum, but a referendum on what? Labour want to achieve their own brand of Brexit \u2013 the \u201cBrexit-for-jobs\u201d that Corbyn talks about. So if Labour are leading the government, there would be weeks, months, even years of renegotiation of a new deal before a vote. And in a referendum on such a deal, while remain might be an option, Corbyn would be campaigning for Leave – and people who oppose no deal, but not Brexit per se, might support him.<\/p>\n 8. Parliament will be recalled<\/strong><\/p>\n I can\u2019t see it.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong>The Speaker of the Commons, John Bercow, has insisted on MPs having their say through the process but he can\u2019t recall the Commons by himself. It has to be on a request from the government. All explained here<\/a>.<\/p>\n 9. Brexit can\u2019t be stopped<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s become a lot harder but it’s not impossible. It probably involves an election. Given Bercow\u2019s defence of Parliament\u2019s role, it\u2019s quite possible MPs will find a mechanism to pass an Act to postpone Brexit, which Johnson can’t ignore or sidestep. In that scenario I don\u2019t think Johnson has any option but to call an election himself as he has made leaving the EU on 31 October an article of faith. He would therefore appeal to voters to make it happen by voting for him. But a pre-31 October election could be trickier for him because his whole election platform will be to deliver Brexit on Halloween. It appeals to hard leavers but looks obsessive and may not work with others who have swung towards him. \u00a0\u00a0If I had to bet on one scenario, this would be it, with an election probably on 24 October.<\/p>\n 10. The media are all useless at explaining all this <\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/big-ben-919013_1920-150x150.jpg\")
Not so fast. For Corbyn\u2019s plan to work, under the FTPA, he not only needs to win a vote of no-confidence, but a vote of confidence in himself. A passionate pro-European Tory like Ken Clarke might vote with his conscience and declare he had no confidence in Boris Johnson\u2019s Government. But to say that he instead had confidence in a left-wing firebrand who stands for everything he\u2019s spent his life fighting? That is a totally different ask. Which is why the Lib Dems support someone like Clarke or Harriet Harman to be the caretaker PM.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/news-1074604_1920-150x150.jpg\")
They have had their moments. This week\u2019s Observer confused its readers with a leader article praising Corbyn\u2019s plan, a news story quoting people saying it was a non-starter and an opinion column saying Labour weren\u2019t ready to win an election anyway. But there are other non mainstream outlets out there which do a good job in getting the drains up. The Institute for Government<\/a>,\u00a0PoliticsHome<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0The UK in a Changing Europe<\/a>\u00a0are reliable go-to sites, for example.<\/p>\n