So what do we know, two weeks on, two weeks after the people spoke, shouted, swore and howled. We know much\u00a0more than we did before.\u00a0Pent up feelings\u00a0have\u00a0come out\u00a0\u2013 nasty nationalistic, racist ones \u2013 and tolerant, compassionate ones. The political parties have been stress tested as never before. The last fortnight has told us a lot\u00a0about people \u2013 and about politics.<\/p>\n
Here is what we know about people. We know that 52% of the voters rejected the version of reality offered by business leaders, defence chiefs and scientists and believed the version offered by the propagandists \u2013 the Daily Mail, the Sun, Johnson, Farrage and Gove.\u00a0 The research<\/a> shows they were more likely to be Conservatives, to live in the Midlands and North, to be older, to be poorer and not have degrees. Those of us who were out on the street campaigning\u00a0know they range from thoughtful types who think the EU is bit too powerful to full-on racists.\u00a0\u00a0A lot of them are boiling with anger at \u2018that lot\u2019 \u2013 the privileged, the establishment, that Branson who lives in the Caribbean, that Carney who\u2019s Canadian, that rich Gary Lineker etc. In hindsight that\u2019s why the more the experts recommended \u2018in\u2019, the more\u00a0the 52% said \u2018out then\u2019.<\/p>\n We also know there is a 48% chunk of the British public who wanted to stay in the EU, despite all the propaganda. \u00a0They\u2019re also a mixture. Some are Tories, but most are likely to be \u00a0Labour, LibDem, Green and SNP. They are more likely to be graduates, professionals, richer and younger. The IN campaign provided an unprecedented rallying point for those who support international collaboration, oppose racism and believe the EU is on balance a good thing. The 48% have remained vocal and to a degree connected \u2013 marching for Europe and sharing their outrage and solidarity on social media.<\/p>\n The great divide <\/strong><\/p>\n In other words the referendum has revealed a fractured country where the 48% and the 52% inhabit different worlds. On the night after the referendum I joined some of the 48% to drown our sorrows over a few bottles of wine in a pub. For many of the 52% that\u2019s not an option. Between us, we probably spent a typical family\u2019s weekly food budget. Talk of a classless society is baloney. The gulf between managers and workers may have closed but another has opened between graduates and non-graduates, those who move, socially and geographically, and those who don\u2019t, those with careers and those with zero-hours contracts, those who get on and those who get by.<\/p>\n I respect people who want a second vote, or want Parliament to over-rule the result on the grounds that the referendum is non-binding or that people were misinformed. But personally I feel it would be wrong to suppress the verdict of the 52%. It would legitimise the\u00a0paranoia that anti-EU propagandists trade on\u00a0and provide the perfect excuse to depict Brussels and the establishment as riding rough-shod over ordinary people. Now we\u2019ve let everyone have their say, the 48% need to regroup and create a movement that speaks more clearly for progressive politics. Then that movement needs to find ways to reach out across the gulf, overcome the propaganda machines\u00a0and win over a decisive chunk of the 52% through compelling advocacy of progressive, collaborative politics. We need a proper fix, not a quick fix. Then perhaps we can have\u00a0another referendum.<\/p>\n Handstands and the splits <\/strong><\/p>\n But not now. Because if you look at what the last fortnight has told us about politics, the 48% are in no fit state to win anything. The 52% \u2013 plus the 15% Tory remainers \u2013 have clear political representatives. They have UKIP and the Tories. At first sight the Tories appear to be in a mess, but they remain capable of doing handstands and the splits simultaneously to retain power. Having dragged the country out of the EU as a result of their intermittent civil war, with about 60% of them voting leave, they are now about to unite around a new leader \u2013 with the favourite being someone who voted remain. You couldn\u2019t make it up. But it\u2019s not crazy. It\u2019s chilling evidence of the cynicism that has kept the Tory machine in power for 52 out of the 71 years since 1945. For many at the top of the Tory party, the referendum was promised simply to win the 2015 UK election \u2013 and now Westminster in 2020 is all that matters. Stuff Europe.<\/p>\n Left of centre \u2013 political rubble <\/strong><\/p>\n So what stands against that formidable Tory machine? Who stands for the 48% (minus the Tory remainers)? If you\u2019re in Scotland, you are spoilt for choice. South of the border, OMG. The 48% are politically homeless. Lib Dems can claim to represent much of what they stand for ideologically \u2013 being pro-EU, open-minded on immigration, liberal etc. But in practical terms, they don\u2019t have 48% of anything \u2013 they have 1% of the MPs \u2013 and 8% of the vote \u2013 compared to 23% in 2010. Why? Research suggests<\/a> that many voters did not forgive the party for going into power with the Conservatives in 2010 after saying a vote for them was a vote to keep the Tories out. And by the way, 30% of today\u2019s Lib Dem voters voted leave \u2013 showing that many LibDem voters \u2013 often acquired through localised \u2018pavement politics\u2019 \u2013 don\u2019t share their leaders\u2019 ideals. This is not the basis of a coherent mass movement for the 48%.<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s over <\/strong><\/p>\n But it\u2019s a whole lot better than the fiasco that Labour has become by allowing its membership \u2013 which elects its leader \u2013 to be captured by the hard left. Around 100,000 people have joined in the past two weeks<\/a> \u2013 the same number as joined immediately before Jeremy Corbyn\u2019s landslide victory last year. The suspicion is that these new members are from far left, Momentum type groups, recruited to re-elect Corbyn if there is a fresh leadership election. \u00a0Unless thousands of moderate Labour voters can be recruited as activists \u2013 something of a contradiction in terms \u2013 by the Saving Labour<\/a> group and others, we\u2019re looking at a perpetually hard left party. Labour is no longer a mass political movement of organised labour so much as a\u00a0narrow protest movement of organised agitation. The Corbynite members come from a different political world to the MPs and to most Labour voters. It\u2019s an ignominious fate for a party that has been thrashing around since \u2018Labour\u2019 became a misnomer in the 1970s and 1980s when its traditional base of industrial\u00a0workers shrank. Since then, it\u2019s either veered to the right, as under Blair, or left as now. It has served its purpose and may be in its death throes.<\/p>\n The upshot is that no-one really represents the bulk of the 48% and there is little hope of either LibDems or Labour being able to do so. \u00a0Nonetheless\u00a0tribal instincts survive in both camps. Having belonged to both parties over the past decade, on 24 June I got emails from Tim Farron asking me to join the LibDems and from Corbyn saying \u2013 and I am not making this up \u2013 \u201cOurs is the only party that can meet the challenge we now face.\u201d<\/p>\n A new home <\/strong><\/p>\n Come on. We can do better than this. Take a look at 48% group on Facebook and you see an entity that is a whole lot more coherent and contemporary than the parties that\u00a0purport to represent it. For a start, the parties should not be splitting the progressive vote. This is too important. It\u2019s time for moderate, progressive people in Labour to realise their party is over; for those in the LibDems to realise theirs is too tarnished; and for the Greens to realise theirs is too small. \u00a0The 48% deserve a single, better,\u00a0home. Something new needs to be built from the left of centre\u2019s current political rubble. And it won\u2019t happen if someone simply hoists up a new flag and says \u201cover here, join me\u201d \u2013 creating yet another Monty Python style splittist faction. This demands humility. It means laying down flags and coming together without anyone thinking they know best and have the answer. And that\u2019s a difficult ask for all those ABC2 graduate managerial types who are so used to controlling things. This kind of process is already being talked about by LibDems such as Vince Cable, who wrote<\/a>: \u201cWhat is needed is something which reaches beyond the tribe and doesn\u2019t rely on conventional party politics within the existing structures.\u201d<\/p>\n The 48% group hits the right tone by simply demanding its\u00a0voice is heard. If people talk, anything could happen. It might start with progressive politicians from across the left of centre plus some supporters of the Remain campaign just rehearsing potential strategies. If Corbyn is unopposed or re-elected, moderate Labour politicians need to accept that time is up on the party they knew and something new is needed \u2013 probably a new party \u2013 which merges with or forms a partnership with the LibDems. It wouldn\u2019t be a re-run of the 1980s SDP because it will represent a far larger proportion of Labour MPs and Labour voters. But the realignment could take many forms. It might mean an electoral pact so the opposition to the Tories is not split in each constituency in 2020. It might be a new party formed by the majority of Labour parliamentarians and LibDems. It might be an alliance that allows everyone to retain their heritage party allegiance while being part of a broader movement for change. It needs to evolve through a broad-based, intelligent conversation with prejudices and banners left at the door. Whatever it is, the key is to provide a single force to represent progressive politics and defeat Conservatism. \u00a0\u00a0Most of all, it needs strong, principled, compelling leaders.<\/p>\n What do we do \u2013 us 48%-ers? \u00a0I suggest we simply do everything we can to keep the flame alive and keep the conversation going. Join Facebook groups, join the Labour, LibDem or Green parties \u2013 not because any of them has the answer but to argue from within for their reconstitution as something more relevant to forward-thinking people in the 21st<\/sup> century. \u00a0Whatever happens, my hope is that we will do this properly \u2013 do it slowly, do it well, do it right. Give the 48% a voice, provide a clear vision, turn them into 58% or 68% and lead Britain back to being the compassionate, collaborative and competitive country it ought to be. \u00a0Churchill said that a pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity and the optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. The left now faces a huge difficulty \u2013 but it\u2019s also one hell of an\u00a0opportunity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" So what do we know, two weeks on, two weeks after the people […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13070"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13070\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.davidvigar.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}